The AUD/USD forex pair remains in a consolidation phase, with traders awaiting clearer direction from upcoming macroeconomic catalysts. Hovering at the critical psychological level of 0.6500, the pair’s trajectory could shift significantly depending on incoming inflation data and global economic sentiment. 

Notably, a golden cross pattern is taking shape, potentially signaling a bullish breakout, yet technical risks remain on the radar. The brokers at Gradiopexo offer an in-depth breakdown of this topic in the article below.

US-China Deal and Inflation Data Keep AUD/USD Flat

The Australian dollar (AUD) and US dollar (USD) exchange rate stayed virtually unchanged on Tuesday, June 11, following important developments from both the United States and China. The pair traded firmly at the 0.6500 mark, reflecting investor caution after two key events:

1. US-China Trade Truce: A new agreement was struck during trade talks in London, where China pledged to resume rare earth material exports to the US. This de-escalation in tensions eased geopolitical risk and was largely priced into the market.
   
2. US Consumer Inflation (CPI): The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the consumer price index rose modestly from 2.3% to 2.4%, below economists’ forecasts of 2.5%. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which strips out food and energy, stayed at 2.8%, suggesting persistent underlying inflation pressures.

The lower-than-expected CPI data ignited speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could lean toward a dovish monetary policy shift. Influential political voices urged the Fed to implement a 100-basis-point rate cut, citing the need to support economic growth amid tariff-induced price adjustments.

PPI Inflation Data Could Shape Near-Term Direction

Market attention has now turned toward the producer price index (PPI) report scheduled for June 12. The PPI gauges the average change in prices received by domestic producers and acts as a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

According to a Reuters poll, analysts expect:

• Headline PPI to rise from 2.4% to 2.6%
• Core PPI to bounce back to 0.3%, after a previous contraction of 0.4%

If the PPI comes in stronger than expected, it may undermine the case for an imminent Fed rate cut, boosting the USD and weighing down the AUD/USD pair. On the other hand, weaker PPI figures would support risk assets, particularly commodity-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar.

Technical Analysis: Golden Cross Nears, But Wedge Pattern Adds Caution

From a technical perspective, the daily AUD/USD chart reveals a significant development. The pair has remained above key support at 0.6500, showing resilience in the face of mixed economic data. More importantly, the pair is on the cusp of forming a golden cross pattern, a highly regarded bullish indicator in technical analysis.

However, there’s a caveat: the pair has simultaneously formed a rising wedge pattern, a bearish chart formation characterized by narrowing price action and converging trend lines. This pattern often precedes a breakdown, especially if market fundamentals don’t support a sustained rally.

Macro Fundamentals Remain Mixed

Aside from the technical landscape, the macroeconomic backdrop remains ambiguous. Several factors will influence the AUD/USD pair in the near term:

1. Federal Reserve Policy: While inflation has cooled slightly, core metrics remain elevated. The Fed may prefer to wait and watch, keeping the interest rate ceiling intact until clearer disinflation signals emerge.
   
2. Chinese Demand Outlook: As Australia’s largest trading partner, China’s economic performance plays a major role in shaping AUD strength. The resumption of rare earth exports may support Australian mining-related sentiment, but any slowdown in Chinese industrial output could limit upside potential.
   
3. Risk Sentiment: Broader risk appetite continues to affect commodity-linked currencies. With low volatility and stable equity markets, the AUD may benefit in the short term, but inflation or central bank rhetoric surprises could quickly change that outlook.

Conclusion: All Eyes on the Golden Cross

In summary, the AUD/USD exchange rate sits at a technically pivotal juncture. While fundamental data remains mixed, highlighted by diverging CPI and PPI trends, the formation of a golden cross on the daily chart could signal renewed bullish momentum.

Yet, the rising wedge formation tempers excessive optimism. Traders should watch key levels closely: a decisive break above 0.6600 could usher in a new uptrend, while a pullback to 0.6400 would reinforce the bearish wedge narrative.