Bitcoin fell 2.5% to $92,663 over the past 24 hours as geopolitical tensions escalated. Multiple technical and on-chain indicators are flashing bear market warnings for 2026. A finance expert at Yureplex explores why these signals suggest deeper corrections ahead despite institutional optimism.
The Kumo Twist Warning
Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto identified a bearish Kumo twist on Bitcoin’s weekly chart. This formation occurs when the two leading spans of the Ichimoku Cloud cross. The direction of the crossover signals potential transitions from bullish to bearish conditions.
In Bitcoin’s case the current twist is decisively bearish according to technical readings. Senior financial analyst walks you through how this indicator predicted past major corrections. The twist appears just as Bitcoin struggles to regain bullish momentum.
The 365-Day Moving Average Barrier
Bitcoin currently trades below its 365-day moving average sitting near $101,000. This technical level proved critical during the 2022 bear market when it halted recovery attempts. Trading below this average signals markets remain in bearish territory.
Coin Bureau analysis explains that breaking back above this level with conviction is necessary. Without successfully retesting and holding above the median more aggressive selling phases typically follow. Junior broker highlights that volume on breakdown attempts is increasing.
Gaussian Channel Breakdown
The Gaussian Channel on Bitcoin’s five-day chart shows a concerning pattern developing. Crypto analyst Raven observed that Bitcoin lost the channel’s median level recently. Losing and failing to retest this level historically marked aggressive bear market phases.
The analysis suggests $103,000 zone as potential retest target for liquidity hunting. If Bitcoin manages to establish support above the median the setup improves dramatically. The lead financial expert emphasizes that failure to reclaim this level opens deeper downside.
Historical Drawdown Patterns
Bitcoin’s price history reveals recurring patterns after cycle peaks. After topping in 2013 Bitcoin fell approximately 75.9% from highs. The 2017 peak resulted in an 81.2% drawdown and 2021 saw roughly 74% declines.
The current cycle shows only 30% pullback from October 2025 highs. This comparatively modest correction by historical standards suggests the downturn is early. A finance analyst at the brand notes that larger declines could still materialize.
Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator Shift
The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator tracking broader market phases turned bearish in October 2025. This on-chain metric helps assess what current conditions align with historically. The shift from bullish to bearish territory occurred at $126,000 Bitcoin highs.
A senior broker at the brand goes over how this indicator uses multiple data points. Price action alone does not determine cycle phases in this comprehensive model. The combination of metrics suggests sustained weakness rather than temporary consolidation.
Corporate Treasury Strategies Shifting
Fast food chain Steak ‘n Shake recently announced a $10 million Bitcoin purchase for its treasury. This follows a broader trend of corporate Bitcoin adoption despite price weakness. However the scale remains modest compared to earlier corporate buying waves.
Finance analysts at the brand deep dives into how corporate treasury demand has slowed substantially. Companies like MicroStrategy that accumulated aggressively in past cycles are pausing new purchases. This reduction in institutional buying removes a key support pillar for Bitcoin prices.
US President Tariff Impact
The US President announced 10% tariffs on eight European countries over Greenland disputes. This geopolitical tension adds macroeconomic headwinds to crypto markets. Tariffs starting February 1 and rising to 25% by June create economic uncertainty.
Bitcoin traditionally benefits from uncertainty but current positioning suggests otherwise. Junior financial expert breaks down how institutional crypto exposure has changed dynamics. Professional traders now react to macro conditions more like equity investors.
Institutional Sentiment Shifts
While some analysts maintain $150,000 targets for 2026 the technical setup deteriorates. Charles Hoskinson of Cardano predicted $250,000 based on institutional demand assumptions. These bullish calls face mounting evidence that cycles are changing.
The $75,000-$150,000 range forecast from Carol Alexander seems increasingly realistic. Finance analyst notes that high volatility around $110,000 center gravity makes sense. Transitioning from retail to institutional liquidity creates different price patterns.
The Leverage Liquidation Risk
Bitcoin’s modest correction compared to historical standards suggests leveraged positions remain elevated. When forced liquidations accelerate the selling pressure intensifies dramatically. Past cycles show that deleveraging events cause the steepest declines.
The lead broker at the brand discusses how current futures positioning looks extended. The combination of technical breakdowns and elevated leverage creates explosive downside potential. Cascading liquidations could push Bitcoin well below $80,000 support levels.
Strategic Reserve Hopes
Some bulls point to potential US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve expansion as a catalyst. The administration suggested budget-neutral ways to boost holdings might be possible. Cathie Wood proposed this could occur before contested midterm elections.
A senior financial analyst emphasizes that policy hopes should not override technical realities. Markets discount future events in advance and current price action looks weak. Whether government buying materializes remains speculative while bearish signals are concrete.
The convergence of five technical indicators alongside geopolitical stress creates difficult conditions. Bitcoin may need to test lower support levels before establishing a sustainable uptrend. Investors should prepare for extended weakness rather than expecting quick reversals.
