The BTC/USD pair remained under intense pressure on Thursday as investor participation weakened and a notable divergence between Bitcoin and the stock market gained momentum. While traditional equities surged to fresh highs, Bitcoin retreated sharply, underscoring growing uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market. Rivonsphere experts deliver a detailed and insightful analysis of the subject.
The pair slipped below the critical $68,000 level, trading around $67,665, a steep decline from the year-to-date high of $126,300 recorded in October. The persistent weakness reflects both macro-driven headwinds and deteriorating derivatives market metrics, particularly falling futures open interest.
Bitcoin Diverges from Stock Market Strength
One of the most striking developments this week has been the negative divergence between Bitcoin and U.S. equities. While Bitcoin declined, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged to a new record high, signaling continued investor confidence in traditional risk assets.
The selloff in Bitcoin followed the release of strong labor market data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). According to the report, the U.S. economy added over 130,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%.
At first glance, robust employment data would typically support risk assets. However, in the current macro environment, stronger-than-expected jobs figures can delay potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, thereby strengthening the U.S. dollar and pressuring alternative assets such as Bitcoin.
Analysts have also cautioned that the jobs data may be subject to downward revisions, a pattern seen previously. For example, revisions to last year’s employment figures showed that the economy added an average of 15,000 jobs per month, significantly lower than the initially reported average of 49,000 jobs. Such discrepancies raise concerns about the reliability of forward-looking monetary policy expectations.
Falling Open Interest Signals Weakening Demand
A critical bearish signal for Bitcoin has been the sharp drop in futures open interest, a key metric measuring the total number of outstanding derivative contracts.
Open interest has declined to approximately $45 billion, down sharply from last year’s peak above $95 billion. This nearly 50% contraction points to reduced speculative participation, lower institutional hedging activity, and declining leveraged positioning, reflecting a meaningful pullback in overall market engagement.
A sustained decline in open interest often indicates weakening demand and reduced market conviction. When price falls alongside declining open interest, it typically signals long liquidation rather than fresh short positioning, reflecting a broader withdrawal of capital from the market.
Without renewed inflows into derivatives markets, Bitcoin may struggle to regain upward momentum.
Fiscal Concerns Add to Market Anxiety
Macro uncertainty intensified after the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warned about the United States’ unsustainable fiscal trajectory.
According to projections, the federal deficit could rise by $4.7 trillion over the next decade. Key drivers include immigration policy expenditures exceeding $500 billion and proposed tariff adjustments by the US President expected to generate roughly $3 trill
Although rising deficits historically support the long-term bullish case for Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat debasement, short-term market reactions often favor liquidity and yield-bearing assets, particularly when interest rates remain elevated.
Thus, the immediate effect has been heightened uncertainty rather than renewed Bitcoin accumulation.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
From a technical standpoint, the daily timeframe chart paints a clearly bearish picture.
Bitcoin has fallen from its October peak of $126,300 to the current level near $67,665, representing a decline of nearly 50%. Notably, this drop has occurred even as large holders, commonly referred to as whales, continue accumulating.
Moving Averages Signal Downtrend
The BTC/USD pair remains firmly below both the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
Trading below these key moving averages confirms a strong downward trend and indicates that short-term momentum continues to favor sellers.
Additionally, the Supertrend indicator remains in bearish territory, reinforcing the broader negative bias.
Momentum Indicators Confirm Weakness
Momentum oscillators further confirm the bearish outlook. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has crossed below the zero line, signaling growing downside momentum, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 30, approaching oversold territory.
While an RSI near 30 can sometimes precede a short-term bounce, sustained oversold readings during strong downtrends often reflect persistent selling pressure rather than imminent reversal.
Outlook: Cautious Bias Prevails
The current environment reflects several bearish factors. A decline in open interest points to weakening participation, while strong U.S. macroeconomic data supports tighter financial conditions. Rising fiscal uncertainty is adding pressure, and a breakdown below key moving averages signals fading momentum and a negative technical outlook.
While long-term structural arguments for Bitcoin remain intact, the near-term outlook suggests continued vulnerability. Unless BTC/USD reclaims the $72,000 resistance zone, the path of least resistance appears downward, with $60,000 emerging as the next critical support.
