XRP (XRP) slipped during the Asian trading session on Thursday, down by over 0.50% to $1.36, as geopolitical tensions tied to the escalating US–Iran conflict pressured risk assets across global markets.
Despite the near-term pressure, multiple bullish developments suggest a potential 60% price rally could be on the horizon for the Ripple-associated token. According to the brokers at Rubizio, this article delivers a clear and comprehensive overview of the topic.
Iran War Escalation Weighs on XRP
The US–Iran war has kept oil markets on edge, with fears of broader supply disruptions impacting cryptocurrencies and other risk-sensitive assets. Brent and WTI crude oil prices surged toward $100 per barrel after two Iraqi fuel tankers were attacked in Iraqi territorial waters by suspected Iranian explosive-laden boats. This incident intensified market concerns about supply stability in the Persian Gulf, a region critical for global oil and LNG flows.
Additionally, the Strait of Hormuz remains a focal point. Iran has reportedly laid a dozen naval mines, threatening a shipping route that carries roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas. Iranian officials have warned that oil could spike toward $200 per barrel if the conflict escalates further.
While the US President claimed the conflict would end soon, and India’s S. Jaishankar engaged with Iran’s foreign minister to ensure safe tanker passage, markets have remained jittery. This heightened geopolitical risk has contributed to XRP’s modest decline, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment across asset classes.
Ripple Announces $750 Million Share Buyback
During a period of heightened market volatility, Ripple announced a $750 million share repurchase program, a move widely interpreted as a sign of confidence in the company’s long-term valuation. The initiative is structured as a tender offer, giving employees and early investors an opportunity to liquidate a portion of their holdings through an organized secondary transaction.
Bloomberg reports that this move values Ripple at nearly $50 billion, a remarkable increase from the $11.3 billion valuation in January 2024. While this share repurchase does not directly affect XRP tokens, it underscores Ripple’s expansion into regulated financial infrastructure, a trend likely to enhance investor confidence in the associated token over time.
Ripple Moves to Secure Australian Financial Services Licence
Ripple is also taking steps to broaden its regulated payments footprint by seeking an Australian Financial Services Licence through the proposed acquisition of BC Payments Australia Pty Ltd.
The license would allow Ripple to provide a comprehensive end-to-end payments stack in Australia, including settlement, access to local payout partners, and transaction routing through a single integration. The APAC region has become increasingly important, with Ripple reporting nearly double its payments volume year over year in 2025.
Binance XRP Reserves Hit 10-Month Low
On-chain data revealed that Binance’s XRP reserves fell to $3.7 billion on March 10, the lowest level since April 2025. The decline from roughly $3.9 billion on March 6 reflects a tightening supply of XRP on major exchanges.
Historically, Binance reserves have fluctuated, with earlier peaks above $10 billion in January and July 2025. Exchange reserves are closely watched as a gauge of available sell-side liquidity, and this persistent decline may indicate reduced immediate supply, a factor often associated with upward price pressure.
XRP Technical Analysis: Falling Wedge Signals Potential 60% Rebound
From a technical standpoint, XRP appears to be forming a falling wedge pattern on the weekly chart, a structure typically linked to bullish reversals following a prolonged downtrend.
Price action has compressed between two descending trendlines since mid-2025, with the lower boundary acting as key support near the $1.30–$1.35 region. On-chain metrics, coupled with tightening exchange reserves, support the potential for a rebound toward $2.19, representing roughly a 60% upside from current levels.
Traders are also monitoring momentum indicators, including RSI and MACD, which suggest that XRP may be oversold in the short term. If a breakout occurs above the upper wedge boundary, it could trigger a sustained rally, particularly given Ripple’s ongoing corporate developments and geopolitical volatility that may push investors toward digital assets as alternative stores of value.
Outlook: XRP in a High-Stakes Environment
Despite geopolitical uncertainty, XRP’s combination of technical support, corporate strength, and shrinking exchange supply could position it for a significant price rally. While short-term fluctuations may continue, the convergence of a $750 million share buyback, expansion into regulated markets, and APAC growth points to robust long-term fundamentals.
Investors should, however, monitor ongoing developments in the US–Iran conflict, oil prices, and Ripple’s regulatory approvals, as these factors can amplify market volatility. Overall, the current setup indicates that XRP may be poised for a major bullish move, with a potential 60% upside if technical and fundamental catalysts align.
