The cryptocurrency market entered a turbulent phase last week as XRP faced notable selling pressure following the Ripple case resolution, while Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a dramatic flash crash triggered by a single whale transaction. Investors are now closely monitoring the SEC’s crypto ETF framework, spot ETF approvals, and broader macroeconomic signals that could shape crypto sentiment in the near term. Chris Dahl, a PrimeberGroup broker, provides readers with an in-depth overview of this subject.
XRP Dips Amid Profit-Taking, ETF Hopes Stall
Following the SEC vs. Ripple settlement on August 22, XRP initially surged on the news of regulatory clarity. However, the market quickly pivoted to profit-taking, resulting in a minor pullback. Over the weekend, XRP fell 0.68% on August 24, closing at $3.0265, after a 0.89% drop on August 23. Despite this, XRP still outperformed the broader crypto market, which declined 1.16%, leaving the total crypto market cap at roughly $3.9 trillion.
Investor attention has shifted to the prospective approval of XRP-spot ETFs, a development that could significantly influence institutional inflows and market liquidity. Since the Ripple case resolution, the SEC received a wave of S-1 amendments from various ETF issuers. While this initially raised expectations for imminent ETF approvals, the SEC appears poised to delay decisions until the October filing deadlines, citing the need to finalize a standardized crypto ETF framework.
Recent SEC actions illustrate this cautious approach. The regulator approved the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund (BITW) and the Grayscale Digital Large Cap ETF (GDLC), which include BTC, ETH, and other assets like XRP. However, the SEC simultaneously issued stay orders, temporarily halting their launch to accommodate a more streamlined and standardized regulatory process.
Standardized Crypto ETF Framework Could Unlock Altcoin Flows
Market experts believe the planned ETF framework may trigger a wave of altcoin-spot ETF launches, potentially attracting substantial institutional capital. In July, Cboe, Nasdaq, and NYSE submitted 19b-4 filings requesting rule changes to permit Commodity-Based Trust Shares under the proposed standardized framework. Approval of these filings could greenlight XRP-spot ETF launches, setting the stage for a potential breakout above XRP’s all-time high of $3.6606 (Binance Exchange).
XRP’s near-term price trajectory will depend on multiple catalysts, including:
- XRP-spot ETF headlines
- Treasury Reserve Asset adoption
- Ripple’s US-chartered bank license application
- SWIFT-related developments
- Legislative action
Potential scenarios include a bearish path, where legislative delays, OCC denials, or SEC rejections push XRP below $2.7254, or a bullish trajectory, where ETF approvals, bank license wins, and broader adoption propel XRP above $3.66, with upside potential toward $5.
Bitcoin Flash Crash Highlights Market Fragility
While XRP contended with profit-taking and ETF uncertainty, Bitcoin experienced a sharp flash crash, briefly dipping to $110,306. Analysts traced the sell-off to a single Bitcoin whale offloading 24,000 BTC, valued at over $2.7 billion, intensifying concerns about market liquidity and whale-driven volatility. The same investor still holds 152,874 BTC, suggesting potential for further price swings.
Compounding this, the US BTC-spot ETF market faced a six-day outflow streak, totaling $1.179 billion for the week ending August 22—the largest since February 2025. This persistent ETF outflow pressure adds stress to BTC’s supply-demand balance, contributing to the broader negative sentiment.
Macroeconomic Factors and Fed Policy Weigh on BTC
BTC’s recent volatility was also influenced by US macroeconomic developments. A Fed Chair Powell-induced rally on August 22, sparked by hints of a September rate cut, quickly dissipated as investors reassessed inflation trends and the resilient US economy. A less dovish Fed could weaken demand for BTC, given that lower US interest rates generally enhance BTC’s appeal as a store of value by reducing borrowing costs and softening the US dollar.
Key upcoming US economic data, including consumer confidence, jobless claims, and the Personal Income and Outlays Report, will significantly influence expectations for Fed policy. Elevated inflation could dampen hopes for aggressive rate cuts, while softer inflation may reignite BTC rallies.
BTC Price Outlook: ETFs and Economic Data in Focus
Bitcoin closed Sunday, August 24, at $113,334, following losses of 1.17%, marking a 3.55% weekly decline, despite a prior 3.27% intraday rally. Key catalysts for BTC’s near-term trajectory include:
- US economic indicators affecting Fed policy
- Legislative developments, including crypto-focused bills on Capitol Hill
- BTC-spot ETF inflows and outflows
Bearish scenarios include ETF outflows, positive US economic surprises, and legislative hurdles, potentially pushing BTC below $110,000, with a psychological test of $100,000. Conversely, favorable ETF approvals, weak US data, and legislative support could propel BTC toward the record high of $123,731.
Conclusion: Market Drivers to Watch
Traders and investors should closely monitor the following critical drivers in the coming weeks:
- XRP-spot ETF approval headlines
- CLARITY Act legislative developments
- US macroeconomic data and Fed signals
- ETF market flows impacting supply-demand balances
The convergence of regulatory, macroeconomic, and whale activity will ultimately determine whether XRP and BTC stabilize, rebound, or face further downside. In this volatile period, careful attention to ETF frameworks, economic indicators, and institutional inflows remains crucial for crypto market participants.
