What do falling consumer confidence, rising tariffs, and back-to-school spending all have in common? They’ll each play a role in shaping next week’s earnings from four of America’s biggest retailers.
As Walmart, Target, Home Depot, and Lowe’s prepare to release their quarterly results, traders and investors alike are asking:
- Will Walmart’s e-commerce boom continue to outpace expectations?
- Can Target recover investor trust after months of underperformance?
- Which home improvement giant, Home Depot or Lowe’s, will prove more resilient in a shifting economic climate?
Brokers at Fletrade break down the numbers, provide forward-looking insights, and highlight the strategies that could matter most for positioning ahead of these crucial earnings reports.
Overview
Next week is shaping up to be a pivotal moment for the consumer sector as top retail bellwethers, Walmart, Target, Home Depot, and Lowe’s prepare to release their Q2 results. Collectively, these companies span essential categories such as groceries, general merchandise, apparel, and home improvement, making their earnings a powerful gauge of U.S. consumer health.
These reports will do more than reveal past performance. They will offer insight into how households are adjusting their spending patterns amid persistent macroeconomic challenges, including elevated borrowing costs, shifting wage dynamics, and evolving consumer priorities.
With inflation pressures easing but not disappearing, investors are keen to see how pricing strategies are resonating with customers and whether promotional activity is cutting into margins.
The updates will also shed light on operational resilience: how effectively retailers are managing supply chains, balancing inventory levels, and positioning for back-to-school and holiday demand. As analysts at Fletrade point out, Q2 results often serve as a barometer for broader retail momentum heading into the second half of the year a period that typically drives a disproportionate share of sector earnings.
In this context, next week’s earnings aren’t just company updates; they’re market-moving signals with implications far beyond retail.
Earnings Calendar at a Glance
| Company | Report Date | Consensus Estimates |
| Home Depot | Tuesday, Aug 19 | EPS: ~$4.71; Revenue: ~$45.5B (YoY +5%) |
| Lowe’s | Wednesday, Aug 20 | EPS: ~$4.24; Revenue: ~$23.99B (YoY +1.7–2%) |
| Target | Wednesday, Aug 20 | Expected YoY declines in revenue, net income, and same-store sales |
| Walmart | Thursday, Aug 21 | EPS: ~$0.74; Revenue: ~$174.2B, with optimism on segment trends |
Fletrade’s Broker Commentary & Insights
Home Improvement Sector: Home Depot vs. Lowe’s
- Home Depot is expected to deliver modest gains in both earnings and revenue, bolstered by its diversified U.S.-centric supply chain, which minimizes tariff exposure.
- Lowe’s is forecasted to post similar, albeit less dynamic, results. Management has focused on controlling costs through supply chain adjustments and product redesign to mitigate tariff impacts.
- Valuation metrics favor Lowe’s, offering roughly a 20.5× forward earnings multiple compared to Home Depot’s 26.6×. However, Home Depot compensates with a stronger dividend yield (2.3% vs. 1.9%) and a more resilient foothold amid headwinds.
Fletrade Positioning: Expect Home Depot to take the lead in performance, but shorter-term value seekers may find Lowe’s attractive. Both companies should be watched closely for forward guidance.
General Retail: Walmart & Target
- Walmart enters the week with robust performance in e-commerce (up ~21%) and positive trends in same-store sales and Sam’s Club profitability. Traders are optimistic about a 9% earnings growth and 4% revenue uptick.
- Target, by contrast, faces skepticism. The stock has slid nearly 25% this year, and analysts anticipate declines across revenue, adjusted net income, and comps. Guidance is uncertain, with downgrades like “underperform” from Bank of America and heightened competition from Amazon and Walmart.
Fletrade Positioning: Expect Walmart to deliver resilient results and possibly upbeat commentary, whereas Target faces the uphill task of managing investor concerns around
Broader Market Context & Strategic Implications
The upcoming retail earnings follow a strong S&P 500 showing, with many firms beating EPS estimates, and market sentiment buoyed by rate cut hopes and easing geopolitical tensions. However, analysts caution that even solid Q2 results may not translate into optimistic guidance for H2, particularly in the face of rising tariffs and shifting consumer behavior.
Strategic Insight from Fletrade: These earnings reports will not only reflect past performance but also set the tone for Q3 expectations. Pay close attention to commentary on pricing, tariffs, and inventory management as leading indicators of broader consumer sector trajectories.
Additionally, analysts emphasize that forward guidance on wage costs, supply chain resilience, and consumer credit health could prove decisive in shaping both investor sentiment and retail sector valuations moving into year-end.
Conclusion
Next week’s earnings from the retail giants offer both clarity and caution:
- Home Depot: Poised to shine through diversified supply strategies.
- Lowe’s: Provides compelling value with its defensible margins and cost-efficiency.
- Walmart: Well-positioned on execution and e-commerce momentum.
- Target: Faces pressure; the results may determine recovery timelines.
Fletrade analysts note a selective overweight in Home Depot and Walmart, while keeping a close watch on Target for any potential turnaround signals.
