Bitcoin (BTC) faced renewed selling pressure on August 23, falling 1.26% to close at $114,679, extending its struggle to reclaim the $120,000 level for the ninth consecutive session. After Friday’s 3.27% rally, sparked by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments, BTC momentum stalled as market participants digested rising concerns over institutional demand and ETF outflows. The team at PrimeberGroup, with broker Bernardo De Simone, breaks the topic down into clear, actionable insights in this article.

Bitcoin Under Pressure as ETF Outflows Accelerate

The US BTC-spot ETF market has been under sustained pressure, with a six-day outflow streak leaving ETFs with a $1.19 billion deficit in August. According to Farside Investors, the week ending August 22 saw key flows including:

• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT): net outflows of $615 million, the first since April 2025.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC): net outflows of $235.3 million.
• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB): net outflows of $182.3 million.

In total, seven BTC spot ETF issuers reported net outflows, culminating in a weekly net outflow of $1.179 billion. These withdrawals signal a potential fade in institutional demand, keeping pressure on BTC near term.

ETF flows have historically influenced BTC price trends, and a sustained outflow pattern raises concerns about whether bulls can retake $123K, BTC’s August 14 record high.

Ethereum Falls Short of $5,000

While BTC faced ETF-related headwinds, Ethereum (ETH) also encountered selling pressure. ETH slipped 1.08% to $4,779, partially reversing the previous day’s 14.31% surge after hitting a new all-time high of $4,890 on August 22.

ETH’s spot ETF market reported net inflows on August 22, yet weekly outflows of $241.1 million capped momentum. Despite these outflows, ETH-spot ETFs have continued to outperform BTC ETFs in August, indicating stronger underlying institutional interest in Ethereum.

Key Drivers for BTC Price Outlook

Several macro and market variables will dictate BTC’s near-term trajectory:

• Legislative Developments: Progress on the CLARITY Act could influence crypto adoption sentiment.
• US Economic Data: Key releases, including Consumer Confidence, GDP, jobless claims, and Personal Income and Outlays, may impact investor risk appetite.
• Federal Reserve Policy: Comments on interest rates, quantitative tightening, and inflation expectations remain critical.
• BTC-Spot ETF Flows: Institutional demand and ETF inflows/outflows continue to set near-term price momentum.

BTC Price Scenarios

Bullish Scenario: If US recession risks decline, the Fed maintains a dovish stance, and crypto-friendly legislation gains traction, BTC could surge toward its record high of $123,731. ETF inflows would reinforce this rally.

Bearish Scenario: Conversely, rising recession risks, hawkish Fed rhetoric, legislative roadblocks, or continued ETF outflows could push BTC back toward $110,000, with a breach below that level threatening a test of $100,000 support.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) trades below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but remains above the 200-day EMA, indicating a longer-term bullish trend. Key technical levels include:

• Upside Targets: A break above $115,000 could pave the way to $120,000, while surpassing this level may allow bulls to retest the August 14 record high of $123,731.
• Support Levels: A breakdown below $110,000 may test the 200-day EMA, with $100,000 as the next critical support zone.

Ethereum (ETH) remains above both its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, reflecting ongoing bullish momentum. Key levels:

• Upside Targets: Surpassing $4,890 could open the door to $5,000, and a sustained move above that could target $6,000.
• Support Levels: A drop below $4,750 exposes $4,500, with $4,085 as the next key support.

ETF Flows as Market Sentiment Indicators

Both BTC and ETH price dynamics highlight the increasing role of spot ETF flows in market sentiment. Large institutional withdrawals can create selling pressure, while inflows often signal renewed confidence. Market participants are closely watching ETF activity as a proxy for demand and liquidity, especially during periods of heightened macroeconomic uncertainty.

Fed Policy Remains Central

The Federal Reserve’s policy stance remains a dominant factor. Dovish signals, such as slower rate hikes or reassurance on inflation control, could buoy BTC and ETH. Conversely, hawkish commentary or aggressive tightening measures could suppress risk assets, amplifying ETF-driven downward pressure.

Conclusion

BTC’s near-term outlook remains volatile, with $120,000 as a crucial psychological and technical hurdle. ETF flows, macro data, and Fed policy will be decisive in determining whether bulls can reclaim $123K or if a retracement toward $110K is imminent. Meanwhile, ETH remains on a bullish trajectory, with spot ETF flows supporting its push toward $5,000 and beyond.

Investors should monitor ETF activity, Fed commentary, and key US economic releases closely, as these will likely shape BTC and ETH momentum in the coming weeks.