Bitcoin has refused to take a breather since climbing past the $100K milestone, clocking in above $105,000 as Asian markets opened this Monday. The move follows a wild climb that peaked at $112,000 just days ago, marking an all-time high. But beneath the surface, several metrics are flashing caution.
According to a lead trading agent and financial analyst at Monovex, “We’re at a technical inflection point. The market isn’t reversing yet—but we are seeing symptoms of a saturation event.”
His team of brokers is tracking signals like whale wallet activity and realized profit ratios, both of which hint at an overheated run.
Overheating Signs: Demand vs. Discipline
CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin demand surged to 229,000 BTC over the past 30 days, closing in on December 2024’s frenzied 279,000 BTC climb. At the same time, whale balances rose by 2.8%, a pace that typically cools as large holders begin consolidating.
This type of movement rarely goes unnoticed. Historically, rising demand and whale hoarding signal short-term exhaustion rather than breakout continuation.
“When whales slow accumulation and retail volume thins out, the next phase is rarely vertical,” Monovex explains. “It doesn’t mean a crash. It means recalibration.”
$120K: The Tense Ceiling Ahead
Many eyes are fixed on the $120,000 mark—not just because it’s round and psychological, but because it aligns with a key technical layer: the upper band of the On-chain Realized Price model.
At that level, unrealized profits would hit nearly 40% across the board. According to Monovex, this is the kind of threshold that historically invites profit-taking, creating resistance.
The Bull Score Index, still at a healthy 80, shows momentum hasn’t dried up completely. But metrics like profit margin, saturation, and shrinking new user inflows suggest traders could face sideways movement or a minor drawdown before any meaningful leg higher.
Volume Tells Its Own Story
Weekend volume stayed muted, with only a 0.4% BTC price shift and no major news events to trigger volatility. But Monday’s Asia open showed some return of activity, with volume spikes at $103,800 and $105,300, forming a V-shaped bounce.
This kind of movement points to algorithmic scalping and bot-driven rebounds—a pattern Monovex says has become more common as traditional funds dip their toes into digital assets.
“This isn’t 2021 retail chaos anymore. The market has matured, and the smart money moves like shadows, not stampedes.“
Ethereum, Gold, and Mixed Macro Signals
Bitcoin isn’t alone in its cautious rally.
- Ethereum (ETH) rebounded from $2,472 to $2,527, with clear bullish patterning. High-volume buying suggests ETH isn’t done yet, though its correlation with BTC remains tight.
- Gold edged up 0.6% to $3,311.66, balancing between retreat and renewed demand. Central banks remain active buyers, especially amid uncertainty over new U.S. tariff signals.
- Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei 225 pulled back 0.89%, rattled by renewed steel tariff threats and profit-taking after a strong April performance.
Brazil Bets on Bitcoin—Market Says ‘Not Yet’
Elsewhere, Brazilian fintech Méliuz is making headlines with a $78M equity raise, pledging to convert the full amount into Bitcoin reserves. Shares dropped over 8% after the announcement, reflecting a disconnect between strategy and sentiment.
Méliuz already holds 320 BTC and allocated 10% of its cash reserves to crypto earlier this year. But this fresh move hasn’t wooed investors—yet. A sign that crypto enthusiasm doesn’t always translate to share price gains, especially in emerging markets with liquidity gaps.
Regulatory Winds and Their Impact on Crypto Markets
Beyond price charts, regulatory developments continue shaping crypto’s path. Recent moves by major economies to tighten oversight add an unpredictable layer to market dynamics. While clarity can calm wild swings, uncertainty breeds caution.
For instance, ongoing debates over digital asset classifications and taxation frameworks make institutional adoption uneven. Analysts at Monovex emphasize watching regulatory updates as critical signals, especially as governments juggle innovation with risk. These policy shifts don’t just affect prices—they influence liquidity, investor confidence, and ultimately, which assets thrive in the evolving financial ecosystem.
Final Thoughts: Watch the Ice Beneath the Fire
The Bitcoin rally is still warm—but not roaring.
Analysts from Monovex see a cooling phase unfolding, led by slower accumulation, profit-taking thresholds, and key resistance zones. The $105K–$112K channel could become the battleground in June, as traders look to digest gains, reassess entry points, and wait for macro clarity.
Key metrics to monitor in the short term:
- Whale accumulation levels (watch for pauses)
- Volume spikes between $103K–$106K
- Resistance pressure at $120K
- Bull Score Index drops below 75
- Inflows from traditional funds or sovereign interest
“The market’s not running out of gas—it’s just stretching its legs before the next sprint,” Monovex adds.
Investors who’ve ridden the wave might consider lightening exposure near peak thresholds, while those on the sidelines may find better risk-reward during dips in this consolidation zone.
No frenzy lasts forever. But as Bitcoin moves, it leaves footprints—and if you follow them with focus, they often point the way.
