The Bitcoin price is once again the focus of investor attention as the BTC/USD pair trades just shy of its all-time high. Currently hovering around $109,500, the cryptocurrency is inching closer to breaking the record set at $111,900. With a near 50% rally since April, all indicators suggest that the bullish momentum behind Bitcoin is far from over.
A potent mix of surging demand, falling supply, and favorable technical indicators is fueling optimism that this breakout could signal even further highs. The experts at Servelius delve into the details of this topic in the following article.
Bitcoin’s Supply and Demand Dynamics: A Perfect Storm
One of the most important drivers behind this Bitcoin surge is the dramatic shift in market fundamentals, soaring demand combined with a rapidly declining supply. Over the past two months, the price of BTC has remained resilient as buying pressure has vastly outpaced the number of coins available for sale.
A key player in this demand boom is the Spot Bitcoin ETF market. Funds such as the iShares Bitcoin ETF have been recording robust capital inflows, with iShares alone managing to attract over $70 billion in assets under management (AUM).
Collectively, Bitcoin ETFs have brought in more than $44.5 billion in net inflows in 2025, showcasing institutional confidence in digital assets. This institutional participation is helping legitimize Bitcoin in traditional finance and is reducing volatility due to long-term holding strategies.
Simultaneously, corporate adoption continues to grow. Companies such as Metaplanet, GameStop, and KULR Group have significantly increased their Bitcoin holdings, reflecting a trend where businesses seek to diversify treasury reserves away from inflation-prone fiat currencies. More corporations are expected to follow this strategy, adding to the already strong demand outlook.
On the supply side, exchange balances, a measure of available Bitcoin for sale, have seen a dramatic drop. According to Santiment, BTC supply on exchanges has fallen to 1.1 million coins, down from a year-to-date high of 1.5 million. This 400,000 BTC reduction in circulating supply indicates strong HODLing behavior and rising confidence among long-term holders.
Macro Catalyst: U.S. Inflation Data in Focus
While internal crypto market factors are firmly bullish, the next key macroeconomic catalyst will come from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is widely watched, especially in the context of recent geopolitical and policy developments.
Economists expect the headline CPI to increase from 2.3% to 2.5%, while the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is projected to rise from 2.7% to 2.9%. This anticipated uptick is largely due to the inflationary impact of US tariffs on Chinese goods, which are beginning to ripple through the economy.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis: A Bullish Breakout in Play
From a technical perspective, the BTC/USD pair is displaying classic signs of a bullish continuation. The daily chart reveals that the pair is nearing a critical resistance zone, precisely at its previous all-time high of $111,900. This level also aligns with the upper boundary of a cup-and-handle pattern, one of the most reliable bullish formations in technical analysis.
The cup formation has already completed, and the price is currently progressing through the handle phase, typically a period of mild consolidation before a breakout. This structure indicates the potential for a significant upward thrust once the handle resolves.
Adding further strength to the bullish setup, the BTC/USD pair is well-supported above its 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). These moving averages serve as dynamic support levels and are often used by trend-following traders to confirm the directional bias.
To invalidate the possibility of a double-top reversal pattern, Bitcoin must break and close above the $111,900 resistance. A clean breakout above this level would open the door to a test of the psychological level at $115,000, which could then become the next major price target for bulls.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s price surge is underpinned by solid fundamentals and a strong technical posture. As demand intensifies through ETF inflows and corporate accumulation, and supply dwindles on exchanges, the BTC/USD pair looks poised for another leg higher.
With inflation data from the U.S. potentially adding fuel to the rally, the $115,000 level is now within reach. Traders and investors alike should prepare for volatility, but the prevailing winds favor the bullish scenario.
