The BTC/USD pair, which represents the exchange rate between Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar, has come under significant pressure in recent sessions. A combination of geopolitical tensions, rising commodity prices, and key technical patterns has contributed to this volatility.
With Bitcoin retreating from its year-to-date highs, the emergence of a double-top formation signals a possible short-term pullback for the world’s leading cryptocurrency. Fletrade’s financial expert, Thomas Webber, analyzes the key points of this issue, offering valuable perspective in their latest piece.
Geopolitical Risk Escalation and Market Sentiment
A key driver behind the recent BTC/USD decline is heightened geopolitical risk in the Middle East. Tensions between Iran and Israel have escalated sharply, with major political developments feeding investor anxiety.
The U.S. President cut short his participation at the G7 summit and returned to Washington to chair an emergency national security meeting, signaling the gravity of the situation. His rhetoric, calling for Iran’s surrender and even suggesting the elimination of Iran’s Supreme Leader, has sent shockwaves through global markets.
As a result, risk aversion has increased, and safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar have gained strength. This has contributed to selling pressure on Bitcoin, causing BTC/USD to decline by over 6.60% from its 2025 high of 110,435 to around 104,000.
This geopolitical instability not only affects sentiment but also fuels commodity price inflation, particularly in the energy sector.
Energy Prices and Inflation Fears
The tension in the Middle East has pushed crude oil prices higher, with Brent crude climbing to $76.60 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reaching $73.60. Rising oil prices typically act as a catalyst for cost-push inflation, which can have cascading effects across the global economy.
This surge in inflationary pressure comes at a time when the global economy is already grappling with increased tariffs and weaker demand, especially in manufacturing-heavy economies. The result could be a case of stagflation, a dangerous blend of high inflation and sluggish economic growth, which poses a unique challenge for central banks.
ETF Inflows and Institutional Demand
Despite the ongoing pullback, Bitcoin continues to benefit from strong institutional demand, especially in the United States. Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have recorded seven consecutive days of inflows, with total assets under management reaching $46 billion. This trend underscores sustained confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential, even in the face of short-term volatility.
This robust demand may provide a cushion for Bitcoin’s downside, and historically, the cryptocurrency has performed well following geopolitical crises, such as the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict. Therefore, investors may view the current dip as a buy-the-dip opportunity, contingent on further macro developments.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, the BTC/USD chart is painting a bearish picture. The pair has formed a double-top pattern near the 110,435 level, a classic reversal signal in technical analysis. The neckline of this formation lies near 100,470, which now serves as a key support zone.
If Bitcoin continues to slide and breaks below 100,470, it would confirm the double-top breakdown and signal further weakness. The next potential support could emerge near the psychological level of 95,000.
However, a bounce above the resistance at 110,435 would invalidate the bearish thesis and potentially trigger a bullish breakout. Traders should also monitor volume dynamics; a high-volume break below the neckline would confirm selling conviction, while low-volume dips may lack follow-through.
Conclusion: Near-Term Bearish, Long-Term Conditional on Fed and Demand
In conclusion, the BTC/USD forex signal suggests a near-term pullback is likely as the double-top pattern asserts its influence. The pair may continue sliding toward 100,470, with a break below this level opening the door for additional downside pressure.
That said, Bitcoin remains fundamentally supported by ETF inflows, institutional adoption, and a growing perception as a hedge against macro risk. The trajectory of BTC/USD in the coming days will likely hinge on the Federal Reserve’s tone, developments in the Middle East, and energy price trends.
Traders should remain vigilant for volatility spikes, maintain strong risk management, and monitor key technical levels closely for entry or exit signals. With the current geopolitical and economic landscape, Bitcoin is once again at the center of the global financial conversation.
