The BTC/USD pair remained resilient on Monday, trading at $109,000, slightly below its all-time high (ATH) of $111,900. This consolidation comes after an impressive 11.25% rebound from the June lows, highlighting growing bullish momentum.
From both fundamental and technical perspectives, the setup appears poised for a breakout, potentially pushing Bitcoin prices beyond previous records in the coming weeks. Aurudium’s team offers an in-depth look at the subject in this informative piece.
Fundamental Tailwinds: Institutional Inflows & Macro Backdrop
A key driver behind Bitcoin’s current uptrend is the sustained institutional demand via Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). Last week alone, these ETFs recorded over $769 million in net inflows, marking the fourth consecutive week of capital additions.
Over the past month, the total ETF inflows have neared $6 billion, signaling strong confidence among U.S. investors that Bitcoin’s price is far from peaking.
These ETF inflows are even more significant when contrasted with data on exchange outflows. Over the past few months, centralized exchange balances have dropped sharply, from 1.5 million coins year-to-date to approximately 1.2 million today. This steep decline suggests that investors are increasingly moving assets into cold storage or long-term custodial solutions, thereby reducing market supply and intensifying the supply-demand imbalance.
Adding to Bitcoin’s bullish case is the recent weakness in the U.S. dollar. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has plummeted to 96, down from its 2024 high of 110. This decline reflects rising macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly surrounding America’s growing debt burden.
The situation worsened last week after the US President backed the controversial Republican Big Beautiful Bill, which is expected to further inflate the national debt. The growing concern about U.S. fiscal sustainability continues to erode confidence in the dollar and strengthen the case for alternative stores of value like Bitcoin.
The upcoming Federal Reserve minutes, scheduled for Wednesday, could inject further volatility into the BTC/USD pair. Traders will be closely analyzing the FOMC commentary for any clues on the monetary policy trajectory, especially whether the Fed will maintain its dovish tilt or reintroduce a hawkish bias in response to inflationary pressures.
Technical Indicators: Bullish Flag and Cup-and-Handle Patterns
The technical analysis picture of BTC/USD underscores the case for continued upside. On the daily chart, Bitcoin has formed two powerful bullish continuation patterns: the flag and the cup-and-handle. These patterns typically appear during strong trends and are seen as precursors to breakouts.
The bullish flag pattern consists of a sharp upward rally (the flagpole), followed by a brief consolidation phase within a downward-sloping parallel channel (the flag). Bitcoin is currently in this channeling phase, which often precedes a continuation of the initial move. The breakout from this pattern could propel BTC/USD above its previous ATH, targeting levels as high as $115,000 in the near term.
Simultaneously, a cup-and-handle formation has emerged. This technical setup starts with a rounded bottom resembling a “cup,” followed by a small consolidation drift downward (the “handle”) before resuming its upward trajectory.
This pattern is widely recognized for its high probability of success in forecasting new highs, especially when confirmed with strong volume support and momentum oscillators.
In addition to these patterns, Bitcoin remains well above its 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), further confirming that the bulls are in control. The continued price action above these dynamic support levels reinforces market strength and discourages short-sellers from entering aggressively.
Macro and Sentiment Outlook
Beyond technicals and ETFs, the broader sentiment in crypto remains favorable. The current crypto market structure shows higher highs and higher lows, indicating a persistent bullish trend. Meanwhile, on-chain indicators such as network hash rate, wallet activity, and transaction throughput are also rising, further cementing the case for a sustained rally.
Additionally, Bitcoin dominance has held steady above 52%, suggesting that capital is still consolidating in the primary cryptocurrency rather than rotating into altcoins. This trend typically precedes major Bitcoin-led rallies.
As the macroeconomic climate continues to shift, with heightened concerns over fiat debasement, inflation, and sovereign debt levels, Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed not just as a speculative asset but also as a hedge, similar to gold in previous cycles. This store-of-value narrative, combined with technical breakouts and institutional support, creates a compelling case for further gains.
Conclusion
The BTC/USD pair is flashing strong bullish signals, both technically and fundamentally. With key patterns like the flag and cup-and-handle forming, and strong tailwinds from ETF inflows, USD weakness, and exchange outflows, the stage is set for a potential surge to new all-time highs.
A confirmed breakout above $111,900 could open the door for a rally toward $115,000 and beyond, provided upcoming macro events like the Fed minutes do not dampen risk appetite. Traders and investors alike will be watching closely for confirmation of this historic breakout.
