As Nvidia drifts and tariffs loom, South Korea’s tech titan stumbles. Brokers from Rineplex break down what’s weighing on Samsung’s margins.

Samsung Electronics is bracing for a sharp second-quarter profit drop, with earnings expected to sink by nearly 39%. The shortfall stems from delays in advanced chip supply to Nvidia, tepid progress in high-bandwidth memory certification, and growing tension around U.S. tariff threats.

According to brokers at Rineplex, “This quarter exposes a deep fracture in Samsung’s AI strategy. While competitors push product, Samsung’s caught in a waiting game, both with Nvidia and international policy.”

HBM Bottleneck Slows AI Ambitions

Samsung’s projected Q2 operating profit is set at ₩6.3 trillion (USD $4.62 billion), a steep fall from ₩10.4 trillion during the same period last year. The culprit? HBM delays.

High-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips are essential for AI data centers, and Samsung’s inability to deliver its HBM3E 12-high chips to Nvidia has put it at a disadvantage. While SK Hynix and Micron have gained momentum from booming AI infrastructure demand, Samsung is struggling to keep pace.

• HBM revenue was reportedly flat in Q2, as stated by NH Investment & Securities.
• Shipments to Nvidia have yet to meaningfully begin.
• Certification issues continue to hold Samsung back.

“Certification is more than a checklist, it’s a gateway,” Rineplex explains. “You can have the best tech on paper, but if the customer hasn’t validated it, you’re locked out of the market.”

Interestingly, AMD confirmed in June that it has started receiving Samsung’s HBM chips, but the volumes are not expected to move the needle this year. The delay with Nvidia is where the real drag lies.

Tariffs, Trade, and Timing Troubles

Adding another layer of risk is the shifting ground under global trade. With the July 9 U.S. deadline for reciprocal tariffs fast approaching, anxiety is building across exporters, and Samsung is heavily exposed.

Key worries:

• Smartphones may be subject to 25% tariffs under new U.S. proposals.
• Licensing barriers threaten Samsung’s ability to access U.S. technology for its China-based plants.
• The potential withdrawal of export authorizations looms over chipmakers operating in the Asia-Pacific corridor.

These risks aren’t just theoretical. They’re already shifting corporate behavior. Pre-tariff inventory buildup in U.S. smartphone channels is temporarily helping Samsung’s phone division, but the impact is expected to be short-lived.

“Samsung’s short-term wins could turn into third-quarter losses if tariffs go through,” warns Experts at Rineplex. “A few strong weeks of smartphone sales can’t offset an annual supply chain headache.”

Comparing the Giants: Samsung vs. Rivals

The narrative gets clearer when viewed against the performance of its peers. SK Hynix and Micron have already seen tailwinds from AI-driven chip orders. Meanwhile, Samsung’s Q2 output has remained sluggish, the lowest in six quarters.

Stock performance tells part of the story:

• Samsung shares are up 19% year-to-date, still the worst-performing stock among major memory chipmakers.
• In contrast, the KOSPI index has risen 27.3%, outpacing Samsung’s recovery.

This underperformance reflects investor frustration over delays and execution gaps in critical tech. “Investors aren’t just pricing in chip sales they’re pricing in confidence. Right now, that’s fragile,” says Rineplex.

Government Backing: $23 Billion and Counting

To counteract the growing pressure, the South Korean government recently rolled out a ₩30 trillion ($23 billion) chip support package. It’s one of the most aggressive interventions to date, signaling just how central semiconductors are to the national economy.

Key goals of the package:

• Stimulate local chip manufacturing
• Fund R&D in advanced memory tech
• Shield domestic firms from trade shockwaves

Still, government aid is a long-game strategy. Samsung’s short-term dilemma certification delays, export threats, and investor doubt won’t vanish with subsidies.

Don’t Count Them Out, But Watch Closely

Samsung is no newcomer to volatility. As the world’s largest memory chipmaker, it has weathered downturns before. But the convergence of technical lag, trade policy volatility, and competitive pressure makes this downturn harder to brush off.

For investors, the next 60 days will be key:

• Does Nvidia finally certify Samsung’s HBM3E chips?
• Will U.S. tariffs on smartphones be imposed or postponed?
• Can Samsung offset chip delays with strong phone and appliance performance?

The chipmaker’s Q2 earnings announcement on Tuesday will offer clarity, but not resolution. What happens afterward, on both diplomatic and technical fronts,will set the tone for the rest of the year.

Final Take: Don’t Confuse Quiet with Calm

The numbers may show a dip, but the real story is how Samsung’s long-term AI future hinges on short-term execution failures. Its absence from Nvidia’s approved supplier list is more than a paperwork issue. It’s a missed seat at the AI table.

With tensions brewing in Washington and HBM production still lagging behind SK Hynix, investors should brace for more volatility, not less. As Rineplex Experts puts it, “Samsung’s not collapsing, it’s pivoting under pressure. But it needs to pick up speed before others pull further ahead.”

One thing’s clear: this quarter isn’t the story, it’s the setup. And markets are watching closely.