The Gold price (XAU/USD) is showing resilience after a brief dip to a one-week low during the early European session on Thursday. Despite encountering fresh selling pressure amid a hawkish Federal Reserve tone and a strengthening US Dollar (USD), the safe-haven appeal of gold remains intact.
The precious metal currently trades around the $3,366-$3,367 region, nearly flat for the day, as mixed fundamental signals steer the market toward caution. For a nuanced understanding, Fletrade’s financial advisor, Natalie Jones, outlines the core aspects of this topic in the article provided.
Hawkish Fed Undermines Gold, But Not Entirely
Following the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement on Wednesday, the USD extended its recovery from a three-year low. While the Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged as widely expected, its updated dot plot and economic projections signaled a more hawkish stance than previously anticipated.
Notably, seven of the nineteen FOMC policymakers now expect no rate cuts in 2025, and any potential easing has been pushed further out into 2026 and 2027.
This narrative has breathed strength into the Greenback, pressuring non-yielding assets like gold. A stronger USD typically makes gold more expensive for foreign buyers, limiting demand.
Consequently, the XAU/USD pair experienced an intraday pullback, though downside momentum appears contained due to escalating geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties, which have spurred safe-haven flows into the yellow metal.
No Clear Direction Amid Mixed Fundamentals
While safe-haven demand and technical support cushion gold’s fall, the lack of fresh macroeconomic data from the US on Thursday, owing to the Juneteenth National Independence Day, suggests thinner market liquidity and the potential for erratic price action. In such a backdrop, gold is left at the mercy of broader risk sentiment and USD movement, with neither providing a dominant directional bias.
Thus, traders are advised to tread carefully before initiating aggressive bearish positions, as any further escalation in geopolitical or trade risks could catalyze renewed upside momentum in the yellow metal.
Technical Analysis: Gold Defends Key Support
From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair remains confined within a well-defined ascending trend channel, indicating a short-term bullish structure. Earlier in the session, gold bounced off the lower boundary of the channel, located around the $3,345 support zone. This level has repeatedly acted as a buying zone, reinforcing its importance.
Further reinforcing the upside outlook are positive oscillators on the daily chart, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which remains in bullish territory. These indicators suggest that intraday dips are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities rather than a shift in trend.
Should gold break convincingly below $3,345, it could signal a near-term trend reversal and open the door for a deeper correction. However, if bulls retain control, the immediate resistance lies near the $3,400 psychological level.
Key Resistance Levels to Watch
A sustained break above $3,400 would expose the $3,434-$3,435 region, which serves as a near-term technical barrier. Beyond that, further gains could see gold challenge the $3,451-$3,452 zone, representing a two-month high touched on Monday.
A decisive move past this level may ignite a fresh bullish breakout, paving the way toward the $3,500 all-time high, which also coincides with the upper trendline of the ascending channel.
Such a breakout would likely attract momentum buyers and possibly signal the resumption of the broader bullish trend amid continued macro and geopolitical headwinds.
Conclusion: Gold Navigates a Complex Terrain
The Gold market finds itself at a delicate inflection point, balancing between opposing forces. On one hand, USD strength, underpinned by the Fed’s hawkish tone, weighs on the yellow metal. On the other hand, mounting geopolitical risk and trade tension provide a solid support base.
The technical landscape further complicates directional clarity, as gold remains comfortably within a bullish channel, supported by favorable oscillators. With reduced market participation due to a US holiday and the absence of high-impact data, short-term price action may remain choppy and headline-driven.
Ultimately, until a more definitive macro catalyst emerges, gold is likely to oscillate within a well-established range. Traders would be prudent to monitor key support at $3,345 and resistance near $3,400/$3,435/$3,451, as these levels will offer vital clues about the next significant directional move.
