The cryptocurrency markets are abuzz with heightened anticipation, particularly around XRP and Bitcoin (BTC). XRP surged to a six-week high of $2.3539, driven by renewed hope that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) might drop its appeal in the long-running case against Ripple Labs. 

With a crucial SEC vote scheduled for July 10, market watchers are speculating that an end to the litigation could act as a bullish catalyst, possibly propelling XRP toward the $3 mark. In this article, Aurudium’s brokers provide expert insights and a structured breakdown of the subject.

XRP and the SEC: Legal Uncertainty Lingers but Sentiment Turns Positive

At the heart of XRP’s rally is the SEC v. Ripple lawsuit, one of the most closely followed cases in crypto legal history. The initial optimism stems from a sequence of strategic legal decisions: Ripple withdrew its cross-appeal on June 27, even after Judge Analisa Torres had rejected two joint motions to vacate the injunction and reduce the penalty.

Analysts interpret Ripple’s willingness to abandon its appeal as an indication that settlement terms may have been agreed upon behind closed doors. It would be unlikely for Ripple to make this move without a reciprocal concession from the SEC. The upcoming SEC closed-door meeting on July 10 is expected to determine whether the agency officially withdraws its appeal concerning Programmatic Sales of XRP.

This meeting could be a turning point. Should the Commissioners vote in favor of ending litigation, XRP might break through near-term resistance levels and regain the $3 psychological barrier, a price not seen since the 2025 high of $3.3999 or the all-time peak of $3.5505.

XRP Price Outlook: Legal Outcome and ETF Approval Loom Large

The XRP price outlook remains tightly correlated with two key catalysts: the SEC’s decision and the fate of an XRP-spot ETF. While the SEC approved the Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) rule change for ETF conversion, a stay on its launch has delayed momentum.

GDLC includes XRP alongside Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA), and Solana (SOL), and its eventual trading debut could pave the way for a dedicated XRP-spot ETF.

Such an ETF would be a game-changer, potentially bringing significant institutional inflows into XRP. If the market senses that SEC approval is imminent, XRP could easily break the July 7 high of $2.3539 and then challenge the May peak of $2.6553. A clear move past that level may set XRP on course to reach $3, aligning with bullish trader forecasts.

However, failure to sustain momentum could see XRP dip below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). If that happens, support levels at $2.20 and the 200-day EMA may come under pressure.

Bitcoin Slips Amid Rising Trade Tensions and Tariff Risks

While XRP eyes a higher ground, Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled amid geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds. The release of U.S. trade tariff letters from the US President has stirred fears of escalating global trade tensions, reminiscent of the Liberation Day tariff levels from earlier this year.

Spencer Hakimian, Founder of Tolou Capital Management, shared data visualizations from Bloomberg, indicating that these latest measures could once again ignite inflationary pressures. If tariffs are perceived to add to cost-push inflation, the Federal Reserve may be forced to delay rate cuts, a move that would weaken the appetite for risk assets like Bitcoin.

As a result, BTC fell 0.87% on July 7, closing at $108,284, following a 0.86% loss the day before. Major indices felt the heat too, with the Nasdaq Composite Index down 0.92%, reinforcing the broader risk-off tone.

BTC Price Outlook: Macro Conditions and ETF Trends in Focus

The path ahead for Bitcoin is filled with conflicting signals. On the bearish side, a mix of protectionist trade policy, Fed hawkishness, and ETF outflows could weigh heavily on the market. This scenario risks a retest of the 50-day EMA and a potential dip to the $100,000 support level.

On the bullish side, possible de-escalation of trade tensions, crypto-friendly legislation, and ongoing ETF inflows could reignite upside momentum, setting BTC on course for a challenge of its all-time high at $111,917.

Final Thoughts: XRP’s Legal Fate Could Define the Market

The crypto market narrative is now increasingly binary. For XRP, everything hinges on legal clarity and ETF traction. The July 10 SEC vote may serve as a pivotal moment in determining whether XRP bulls can confidently target $3.

Meanwhile, BTC price action will likely follow the ebb and flow of macro headlines, especially those related to trade wars, Fed policy, and ETF flows. As regulatory frameworks and investor attitudes continue to evolve, these two digital assets remain the barometers for broader crypto market sentiment.